CA District San Diego Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 64

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

292.02 – 149.82

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

303 – 185

Prediction correct · off by 23.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 384.1 ±14

3128The Aluminum Narwhals

A+

Season APEX 308.7Event APEX 268.96Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4984Bullseye

Season APEX 42.5Event APEX 0.41Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10392Brawley Robocats

Season APEX 32.9Event APEX 22.65Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 365.9 ±11.2

812The Midnight Mechanics

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 48.49Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9573MarauderTech

Season APEX 31.8Event APEX -5.11Rank 38Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2102Team Paradox

Season APEX 233.6Event APEX 106.44Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3128, 4984, 10392

/ 100 compat

Projected

292 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 3128, 4984, 10392

Auto

53.6 19%

Teleop

171.0 60%

Endgame

60.6 21%

Strengths

· 3128 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 812, 9573, 2102

/ 100 compat

Projected

149.8 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 812, 9573, 2102

Auto

28.8 19%

Teleop

89.6 60%

Endgame

29.7 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.17 · Blue 0.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score292pts

Blue projected score149.8pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 142.2
Score range: 128–314
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 488 vs event baseline 122.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

384.1Season APEX365.9

53.6Auto28.8

171Teleop89.6

60.6Endgame29.7

37Consistency11

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	63	36
teleop	240	90
endgame	0	59
foul	0	0
total	303	185

Result

Final score

303 – 185

Prediction correct · off by 23.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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