CA District San Diego Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

45.18 – 115.59

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

30 – 184

Prediction correct · off by 41.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 129 ±14.1

8870RedCards

Season APEX 31.4Event APEX 10.46Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

1972Searing Engineering

Season APEX 32.3Event APEX 16.96Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 95

1622Team Spyder

Season APEX 65.3Event APEX 17.76Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 216.5 ±14.9

10625BuzzFusion

Season APEX 58.2Event APEX 11.06Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

2485Overclocked

Season APEX 106.1Event APEX 78.36Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4160The RoBucs

Season APEX 52.2Event APEX 26.17Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8870, 1972, 1622

/ 100 compat

Projected

45.2 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 8870, 1972, 1622

Auto

15.3 43%

Teleop

8.0 22%

Endgame

12.3 35%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10625, 2485, 4160

/ 100 compat

Projected

115.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 10625, 2485, 4160

Auto

20.4 19%

Teleop

68.7 63%

Endgame

19.4 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.95 · Blue 1.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score45.2pts

Blue projected score115.6pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -70.4
Score range: 23–138
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 214 vs event baseline 122.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

129Season APEX216.5

15.3Auto20.4

8Teleop68.7

12.3Endgame19.4

24Consistency14

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	19
teleop	9	115
endgame	4	50
foul	0	0
total	30	184

Result

Final score

30 – 184

Prediction correct · off by 41.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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