CA District San Diego Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 62

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

85.97 – 65.47

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

100 – 123

Prediction missed · off by 35.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 276.9 ±12.8

5474Clairemonster

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 63.52Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6885The Pilots

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 2.71Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3965Sultan Robotics Team 3965

Season APEX 63.5Event APEX 19.74Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 186.9 ±14.9

10586Unearthed

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 24.65Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11459St. Augustine Robotics

Season APEX 32Event APEX 15.4Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

2543TitanBot

Season APEX 76.1Event APEX 25.42Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5474, 6885, 3965

/ 100 compat

Projected

86 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5474, 6885, 3965

Auto

20.6 24%

Teleop

48.7 56%

Endgame

17.1 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10586, 11459, 2543

/ 100 compat

Projected

65.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 10586, 11459, 2543

Auto

20.1 40%

Teleop

18.1 36%

Endgame

12.4 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.6 · Blue 1.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score86pts

Blue projected score65.5pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 20.5
Score range: 43–108
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 223 vs event baseline 122.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

276.9Season APEX186.9

20.6Auto20.1

48.7Teleop18.1

17.1Endgame12.4

0Consistency10

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	29
teleop	43	67
endgame	37	27
foul	0	0
total	100	123

Result

Final score

100 – 123

Prediction missed · off by 35.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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