CA District San Diego Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

246.08 – 71.32

90%10%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

189 – 80

Prediction correct · off by 32.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 472.5 ±11.2

6995NOMAD

Season APEX 191.6Event APEX 148.93Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8006The Phantoms

Season APEX 41.5Event APEX 12.43Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8119TigerBotics

Season APEX 239.4Event APEX 84.72Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 363.6 ±10.4

6695GalvaKnights

Season APEX 133Event APEX 10.41Rank 40Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2658Σ-Motion

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 5.76Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2984Vikings Robotics

Season APEX 127.9Event APEX 55.15Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6995, 8006, 8119

/ 100 compat

Projected

246.1 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 6995, 8006, 8119

Auto

33.9 14%

Teleop

148.5 62%

Endgame

58.2 24%

Strengths

· 6995 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6695, 2658, 2984

/ 100 compat

Projected

71.3 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6695, 2658, 2984

Auto

12.7 20%

Teleop

33.4 51%

Endgame

19.0 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.37 · Blue 0.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score246.1pts

Blue projected score71.3pts

Red win probability90%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 174.8
Score range: 49–268
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 269 vs event baseline 122.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

472.5Season APEX363.6

33.9Auto12.7

148.5Teleop33.4

58.2Endgame19

0Consistency24

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	14
teleop	80	44
endgame	74	22
foul	0	0
total	189	80

Result

Final score

189 – 80

Prediction correct · off by 32.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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