CA District San Diego Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

43.99 – 265.1

6%94%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

76 – 382

Prediction correct · off by 74.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 168.8 ±15.8

10392Brawley Robocats

Season APEX 32.9Event APEX 19.69Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

5514MavBots

Season APEX 71.4Event APEX 21.2Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3341Option 16

Season APEX 64.5Event APEX 3.1Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 434.3 ±12.4

9615Redlands Robotics

Season APEX 64.7Event APEX -1.2Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3128The Aluminum Narwhals

A+

Season APEX 308.7Event APEX 258.61Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9730Metal Maniacs

Season APEX 60.9Event APEX 7.69Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10392, 5514, 3341

/ 100 compat

Projected

44 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 10392, 5514, 3341

Auto

8.1 22%

Teleop

8.8 23%

Endgame

20.7 55%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9615, 3128, 9730

/ 100 compat

Projected

265.1 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 9615, 3128, 9730

Auto

54.9 21%

Teleop

157.3 60%

Endgame

50.1 19%

Strengths

· 3128 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.54 · Blue 2.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score44pts

Blue projected score265.1pts

Red win probability6%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -221.1
Score range: 22–287
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 458 vs event baseline 120.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

168.8Season APEX434.3

8.1Auto54.9

8.8Teleop157.3

20.7Endgame50.1

7Consistency4

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	65
teleop	27	215
endgame	26	87
foul	0	15
total	76	382

Result

Final score

76 – 382

Prediction correct · off by 74.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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