CA District San Diego Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

100.45 – 75.91

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

20 – 61

Prediction missed · off by 47.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 194.3 ±14.1

3704RoboSapiens

Season APEX 23.5Event APEX -2.05Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 79

9615Redlands Robotics

Season APEX 64.7Event APEX 11.62Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2485Overclocked

Season APEX 106.1Event APEX 90.88Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 169.3 ±13.9

1972Searing Engineering

Season APEX 32.3Event APEX 16.65Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 95

2543TitanBot

Season APEX 76.1Event APEX 41.42Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9730Metal Maniacs

Season APEX 60.9Event APEX 17.84Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3704, 9615, 2485

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.4 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 3704, 9615, 2485

Auto

12.2 13%

Teleop

54.9 59%

Endgame

25.5 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1972, 2543, 9730

/ 100 compat

Projected

75.9 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 1972, 2543, 9730

Auto

18.7 25%

Teleop

44.0 58%

Endgame

13.0 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.54 · Blue 1.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score100.4pts

Blue projected score75.9pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 24.5
Score range: 51–125
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 81 vs event baseline 137.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

194.3Season APEX169.3

12.2Auto18.7

54.9Teleop44

25.5Endgame13

33Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	16
teleop	8	28
endgame	2	17
foul	0	0
total	20	61

Result

Final score

20 – 61

Prediction missed · off by 47.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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