CA District San Diego Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

143.83 – 74.32

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

175 – 21

Prediction correct · off by 42.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 284 ±11.7

10586Unearthed

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 21.23Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3965Sultan Robotics Team 3965

Season APEX 63.5Event APEX 16.66Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3647Millennium Falcons

Season APEX 141.7Event APEX 105.94Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 150.6 ±15.8

9573MarauderTech

Season APEX 31.8Event APEX -0.66Rank 38Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5025Pacific Steel

Season APEX 60.6Event APEX 56.14Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10625BuzzFusion

Season APEX 58.2Event APEX 18.84Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10586, 3965, 3647

/ 100 compat

Projected

143.8 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 10586, 3965, 3647

Auto

30.2 21%

Teleop

66.4 47%

Endgame

44.5 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9573, 5025, 10625

/ 100 compat

Projected

74.3 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9573, 5025, 10625

Auto

21.6 29%

Teleop

38.6 52%

Endgame

13.8 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.95 · Blue 1.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score143.8pts

Blue projected score74.3pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 69.5
Score range: 52–166
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 196 vs event baseline 121.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

284Season APEX150.6

30.2Auto21.6

66.4Teleop38.6

44.5Endgame13.8

0Consistency11

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	14
teleop	100	0
endgame	33	7
foul	0	0
total	175	21

Result

Final score

175 – 21

Prediction correct · off by 42.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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