CA District San Diego Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

91.92 – 13.65

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

108 – 54

Prediction correct · off by 28.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 201.7 ±14.9

11459St. Augustine Robotics

Season APEX 32Event APEX 12.89Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

6515Unimatics

Season APEX 41.8Event APEX 21.51Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2984Vikings Robotics

Season APEX 127.9Event APEX 57.52Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 299.9 ±11.7

3749Team Optix

Season APEX 90.8Event APEX -14.04Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6695GalvaKnights

Season APEX 133Event APEX 6.32Rank 40Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2543TitanBot

Season APEX 76.1Event APEX 21.37Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11459, 6515, 2984

/ 100 compat

Projected

91.9 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 11459, 6515, 2984

Auto

21.1 30%

Teleop

25.2 36%

Endgame

24.5 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3749, 6695, 2543

/ 100 compat

Projected

13.7 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 3749, 6695, 2543

Auto

8.0 56%

Teleop

-2.0 0%

Endgame

8.3 58%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.89 · Blue 0.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score91.9pts

Blue projected score13.7pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 78.3
Score range: -8–114
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 162 vs event baseline 122.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

201.7Season APEX299.9

21.1Auto8

25.2Teleop-2

24.5Endgame8.3

0Consistency52

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	13
teleop	36	32
endgame	36	9
foul	15	0
total	108	54

Result

Final score

108 – 54

Prediction correct · off by 28.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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