CA District San Diego Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

56.17 – 126.84

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

95 – 174

Prediction correct · off by 43 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 225.7 ±13.1

4419Team Rewind

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 52.71Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3704RoboSapiens

Season APEX 23.5Event APEX 0.18Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 79

2658Σ-Motion

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 3.28Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 248.1 ±11.7

812The Midnight Mechanics

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 45.33Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8006The Phantoms

Season APEX 41.5Event APEX 6.36Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2485Overclocked

Season APEX 106.1Event APEX 75.15Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4419, 3704, 2658

/ 100 compat

Projected

56.2 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4419, 3704, 2658

Auto

10.3 19%

Teleop

31.0 57%

Endgame

13.2 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 812, 8006, 2485

/ 100 compat

Projected

126.8 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 812, 8006, 2485

Auto

15.7 13%

Teleop

71.1 57%

Endgame

37.9 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.96 · Blue 1.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score56.2pts

Blue projected score126.8pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -70.7
Score range: 34–149
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 269 vs event baseline 122.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

225.7Season APEX248.1

10.3Auto15.7

31Teleop71.1

13.2Endgame37.9

0Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	2	32
teleop	74	88
endgame	19	39
foul	0	15
total	95	174

Result

Final score

95 – 174

Prediction correct · off by 43 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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