CA District San Diego Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

98.15 – 227.97

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

114 – 332

Prediction correct · off by 59.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 232.5 ±12.2

4738Patribots

Season APEX 142.7Event APEX 49.14Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4160The RoBucs

Season APEX 52.2Event APEX 25.5Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8891Wild Raccoons

Season APEX 37.6Event APEX 23.51Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 474.5 ±11.2

6885The Pilots

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX -6.25Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6995NOMAD

Season APEX 191.6Event APEX 138.02Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2102Team Paradox

Season APEX 233.6Event APEX 96.2Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4738, 4160, 8891

/ 100 compat

Projected

98.2 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4738, 4160, 8891

Auto

17.1 17%

Teleop

54.2 55%

Endgame

27.4 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6885, 6995, 2102

/ 100 compat

Projected

228 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 6885, 6995, 2102

Auto

46.3 21%

Teleop

143.6 64%

Endgame

33.3 15%

Strengths

· 6995 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.78 · Blue 2.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score98.2pts

Blue projected score228pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -129.8
Score range: 76–250
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 446 vs event baseline 120.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

232.5Season APEX474.5

17.1Auto46.3

54.2Teleop143.6

27.4Endgame33.3

13Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	43
teleop	66	222
endgame	34	62
foul	0	5
total	114	332

Result

Final score

114 – 332

Prediction correct · off by 59.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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