CA District San Diego Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

41.88 – 261.81

6%94%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

32 – 242

Prediction correct · off by 14.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 116.5 ±16.9

9730Metal Maniacs

Season APEX 60.9Event APEX 8.94Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2827LEGION Robotics

Season APEX 24.2Event APEX 19.73Rank 33Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

8870RedCards

Season APEX 31.4Event APEX 13.21Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 545.2 ±9.8

3647Millennium Falcons

Season APEX 141.7Event APEX 113Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8119TigerBotics

Season APEX 239.4Event APEX 83.41Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5474Clairemonster

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 65.4Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9730, 2827, 8870

/ 100 compat

Projected

41.9 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 9730, 2827, 8870

Auto

12.6 30%

Teleop

12.5 29%

Endgame

17.4 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3647, 8119, 5474

/ 100 compat

Projected

261.8 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 3647, 8119, 5474

Auto

42.5 17%

Teleop

149.0 59%

Endgame

62.7 25%

Strengths

· 3647 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.51 · Blue 2.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score41.9pts

Blue projected score261.8pts

Red win probability6%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -219.9
Score range: 20–284
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 274 vs event baseline 119.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

116.5Season APEX545.2

12.6Auto42.5

12.5Teleop149

17.4Endgame62.7

29Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	38
teleop	18	144
endgame	1	60
foul	0	0
total	32	242

Result

Final score

32 – 242

Prediction correct · off by 14.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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