CA District San Diego Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

177.58 – 170.37

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

197 – 59

Prediction correct · off by 65.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 287.4 ±14.4

8891Wild Raccoons

Season APEX 37.6Event APEX 23.02Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10625BuzzFusion

Season APEX 58.2Event APEX 20.86Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

6995NOMAD

Season APEX 191.6Event APEX 133.7Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 281.8 ±11.7

9452LHS Steel Stingers

Season APEX 159.2Event APEX 154.89Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9573MarauderTech

Season APEX 31.8Event APEX 17.13Rank 38Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3749Team Optix

Season APEX 90.8Event APEX -1.65Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8891, 10625, 6995

/ 100 compat

Projected

177.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 8891, 10625, 6995

Auto

31.9 18%

Teleop

106.0 61%

Endgame

36.9 21%

Strengths

· 6995 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9452, 9573, 3749

/ 100 compat

Projected

170.4 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 9452, 9573, 3749

Auto

14.4 8%

Teleop

94.4 56%

Endgame

61.2 36%

Strengths

· 9452 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.54 · Blue 1.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score177.6pts

Blue projected score170.4pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 7.2
Score range: 149–199
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 256 vs event baseline 119.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

287.4Season APEX281.8

31.9Auto14.4

106Teleop94.4

36.9Endgame61.2

13Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	11
teleop	109	48
endgame	40	0
foul	0	0
total	197	59

Result

Final score

197 – 59

Prediction correct · off by 65.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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