CA District San Diego Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

45.6 – 47.86

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

72 – 39

Prediction missed · off by 17.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 174 ±14.9

2827LEGION Robotics

Season APEX 24.2Event APEX 11.95Rank 33Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

812The Midnight Mechanics

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 43.91Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6885The Pilots

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX -10.26Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 125.1 ±13.9

1972Searing Engineering

Season APEX 32.3Event APEX 20.42Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 95

8006The Phantoms

Season APEX 41.5Event APEX 8.16Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4919Team Ronin

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 19.28Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2827, 812, 6885

/ 100 compat

Projected

45.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2827, 812, 6885

Auto

16.2 30%

Teleop

25.3 47%

Endgame

12.9 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1972, 8006, 4919

/ 100 compat

Projected

47.9 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1972, 8006, 4919

Auto

10.5 25%

Teleop

15.1 36%

Endgame

16.8 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.4 · Blue 1.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score45.6pts

Blue projected score47.9pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -2.3
Score range: 24–70
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 111 vs event baseline 120.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

174Season APEX125.1

16.2Auto10.5

25.3Teleop15.1

12.9Endgame16.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	15
teleop	35	21
endgame	24	3
foul	0	0
total	72	39

Result

Final score

72 – 39

Prediction missed · off by 17.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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