CA District San Diego Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

126.96 – 147.64

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

116 – 127

Prediction correct · off by 15.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 270.9 ±11

2984Vikings Robotics

Season APEX 127.9Event APEX 54.63Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

812The Midnight Mechanics

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 61.28Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4984Bullseye

Season APEX 42.5Event APEX 11.05Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 255.1 ±14.1

9452LHS Steel Stingers

Season APEX 159.2Event APEX 128.26Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8870RedCards

Season APEX 31.4Event APEX 7.99Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

3341Option 16

Season APEX 64.5Event APEX 11.39Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2984, 812, 4984

/ 100 compat

Projected

127 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 2984, 812, 4984

Auto

24.2 20%

Teleop

70.1 57%

Endgame

29.2 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9452, 8870, 3341

/ 100 compat

Projected

147.6 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9452, 8870, 3341

Auto

22.5 16%

Teleop

63.0 46%

Endgame

50.9 37%

Strengths

· 9452 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.33 · Blue 1.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score127pts

Blue projected score147.6pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -20.7
Score range: 102–173
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 243 vs event baseline 137.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

270.9Season APEX255.1

24.2Auto22.5

70.1Teleop63

29.2Endgame50.9

0Consistency45

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	16
teleop	56	52
endgame	44	59
foul	0	0
total	116	127

Result

Final score

116 – 127

Prediction correct · off by 15.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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