CA District San Diego Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

86.72 – 131.3

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

62 – 94

Prediction correct · off by 31 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 321.5 ±11.7

4738Patribots

Season APEX 142.7Event APEX 51.58Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2658Σ-Motion

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 9.15Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2543TitanBot

Season APEX 76.1Event APEX 25.99Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 342.2 ±13.7

8870RedCards

Season APEX 31.4Event APEX 18.89Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

8119TigerBotics

Season APEX 239.4Event APEX 88.17Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5514MavBots

Season APEX 71.4Event APEX 24.24Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4738, 2658, 2543

/ 100 compat

Projected

86.7 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4738, 2658, 2543

Auto

13.1 14%

Teleop

59.1 64%

Endgame

20.5 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8870, 8119, 5514

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 8870, 8119, 5514

Auto

10.8 9%

Teleop

62.2 51%

Endgame

49.8 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.16 · Blue 1.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score86.7pts

Blue projected score131.3pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -44.6
Score range: 65–153
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 156 vs event baseline 121.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

321.5Season APEX342.2

13.1Auto10.8

59.1Teleop62.2

20.5Endgame49.8

18Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	14
teleop	22	49
endgame	6	31
foul	15	0
total	62	94

Result

Final score

62 – 94

Prediction correct · off by 31 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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