CA District San Diego Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

164.03 – 57.22

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

234 – 60

Prediction correct · off by 36.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 463 ±9.8

5474Clairemonster

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 59.26Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2102Team Paradox

Season APEX 233.6Event APEX 85.15Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1622Team Spyder

Season APEX 65.3Event APEX 19.62Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 258.3 ±12.8

5025Pacific Steel

Season APEX 60.6Event APEX 53.19Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9615Redlands Robotics

Season APEX 64.7Event APEX 0.58Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6695GalvaKnights

Season APEX 133Event APEX 3.45Rank 40Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5474, 2102, 1622

/ 100 compat

Projected

164 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5474, 2102, 1622

Auto

34.8 23%

Teleop

93.2 62%

Endgame

21.9 15%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5025, 9615, 6695

/ 100 compat

Projected

57.2 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5025, 9615, 6695

Auto

17.8 28%

Teleop

37.2 59%

Endgame

7.9 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.15 · Blue 0.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score164pts

Blue projected score57.2pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 106.8
Score range: 35–186
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 294 vs event baseline 120.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

463Season APEX258.3

34.8Auto17.8

93.2Teleop37.2

21.9Endgame7.9

14Consistency13

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	8
teleop	158	22
endgame	36	30
foul	0	0
total	234	60

Result

Final score

234 – 60

Prediction correct · off by 36.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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