CA District San Diego Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

43.41 – 113.12

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

159 – 121

Prediction missed · off by 61.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 183.7 ±14.9

11459St. Augustine Robotics

Season APEX 32Event APEX -2.74Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

4419Team Rewind

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 27.92Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4160The RoBucs

Season APEX 52.2Event APEX 18.23Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 179.7 ±12.8

2485Overclocked

Season APEX 106.1Event APEX 74.28Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9573MarauderTech

Season APEX 31.8Event APEX 15.63Rank 38Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6515Unimatics

Season APEX 41.8Event APEX 23.21Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11459, 4419, 4160

/ 100 compat

Projected

43.4 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 11459, 4419, 4160

Auto

10.7 33%

Teleop

4.2 13%

Endgame

17.7 54%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2485, 9573, 6515

/ 100 compat

Projected

113.1 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2485, 9573, 6515

Auto

23.7 21%

Teleop

54.6 48%

Endgame

35.8 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.04 · Blue 1.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score43.4pts

Blue projected score113.1pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -69.7
Score range: 21–135
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 280 vs event baseline 120.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

183.7Season APEX179.7

10.7Auto23.7

4.2Teleop54.6

17.7Endgame35.8

23Consistency10

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	17
teleop	112	72
endgame	22	32
foul	5	0
total	159	121

Result

Final score

159 – 121

Prediction missed · off by 61.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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