CA District San Diego Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

35.73 – 66.04

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

17 – 85

Prediction correct · off by 18.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 157.9 ±12.8

1622Team Spyder

Season APEX 65.3Event APEX 21.8Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2839Daedalus

Season APEX 27.9Event APEX 11.68Rank 39Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9615Redlands Robotics

Season APEX 64.7Event APEX 2.25Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 234.6 ±13.1

2658Σ-Motion

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 6.97Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

812The Midnight Mechanics

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 37.87Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8870RedCards

Season APEX 31.4Event APEX 21.2Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1622, 2839, 9615

/ 100 compat

Projected

35.7 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 1622, 2839, 9615

Auto

11.3 29%

Teleop

27.5 71%

Endgame

-0.3 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2658, 812, 8870

/ 100 compat

Projected

66 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2658, 812, 8870

Auto

16.3 24%

Teleop

17.2 26%

Endgame

33.2 50%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.23 · Blue 1.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score35.7pts

Blue projected score66pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -30.3
Score range: 14–88
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 102 vs event baseline 120.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

157.9Season APEX234.6

11.3Auto16.3

27.5Teleop17.2

-0.3Endgame33.2

0Consistency21

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	15
teleop	3	51
endgame	1	19
foul	0	0
total	17	85

Result

Final score

17 – 85

Prediction correct · off by 18.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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