CA District San Diego Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

57.42 – 179.29

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

40 – 70

Prediction correct · off by 63.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 191 ±12.8

9730Metal Maniacs

Season APEX 60.9Event APEX 11.43Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4919Team Ronin

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 21.99Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10586Unearthed

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 24Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 357.2 ±12.4

2102Team Paradox

Season APEX 233.6Event APEX 102.12Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4160The RoBucs

Season APEX 52.2Event APEX 31.12Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5514MavBots

Season APEX 71.4Event APEX 46.05Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9730, 4919, 10586

/ 100 compat

Projected

57.4 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9730, 4919, 10586

Auto

16.5 28%

Teleop

30.4 51%

Endgame

12.5 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2102, 4160, 5514

/ 100 compat

Projected

179.3 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2102, 4160, 5514

Auto

29.5 18%

Teleop

99.3 59%

Endgame

38.9 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.82 · Blue 2.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score57.4pts

Blue projected score179.3pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -121.9
Score range: 35–201
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 110 vs event baseline 121.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

191Season APEX357.2

16.5Auto29.5

30.4Teleop99.3

12.5Endgame38.9

0Consistency13

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	12
teleop	23	41
endgame	6	17
foul	0	0
total	40	70

Result

Final score

40 – 70

Prediction correct · off by 63.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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