CA District San Diego Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

52.78 – 58.1

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

113 – 100

Prediction missed · off by 51.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 225.2 ±13.6

8891Wild Raccoons

Season APEX 37.6Event APEX 22.72Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5474Clairemonster

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 48.84Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3704RoboSapiens

Season APEX 23.5Event APEX -18.78Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 79

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 308 ±11.7

6695GalvaKnights

Season APEX 133Event APEX -5.61Rank 40Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4738Patribots

Season APEX 142.7Event APEX 43.3Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1972Searing Engineering

Season APEX 32.3Event APEX 20.41Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8891, 5474, 3704

/ 100 compat

Projected

52.8 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 8891, 5474, 3704

Auto

7.8 25%

Teleop

15.1 49%

Endgame

8.0 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6695, 4738, 1972

/ 100 compat

Projected

58.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 6695, 4738, 1972

Auto

10.2 19%

Teleop

18.1 34%

Endgame

24.2 46%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.34 · Blue 1.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score52.8pts

Blue projected score58.1pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -5.3
Score range: 31–80
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 213 vs event baseline 122.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

225.2Season APEX308

7.8Auto10.2

15.1Teleop18.1

8Endgame24.2

8Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	18
teleop	48	55
endgame	30	27
foul	0	0
total	113	100

Result

Final score

113 – 100

Prediction missed · off by 51.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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