CA District San Diego Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

121.34 – 221.66

22%78%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

165 – 187

Prediction correct · off by 39.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 209.2 ±12.2

4984Bullseye

Season APEX 42.5Event APEX 5.66Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5025Pacific Steel

Season APEX 60.6Event APEX 45.97Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2485Overclocked

Season APEX 106.1Event APEX 69.71Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 395.6 ±11.7

2543TitanBot

Season APEX 76.1Event APEX 30.31Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2984Vikings Robotics

Season APEX 127.9Event APEX 52.33Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6995NOMAD

Season APEX 191.6Event APEX 139.02Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4984, 5025, 2485

/ 100 compat

Projected

121.3 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4984, 5025, 2485

Auto

23.3 18%

Teleop

79.1 61%

Endgame

27.5 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2543, 2984, 6995

/ 100 compat

Projected

221.7 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2543, 2984, 6995

Auto

37.5 17%

Teleop

113.6 53%

Endgame

63.9 30%

Strengths

· 6995 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.87 · Blue 2.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score121.3pts

Blue projected score221.7pts

Red win probability22%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -100.3
Score range: 99–244
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 352 vs event baseline 120.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

209.2Season APEX395.6

23.3Auto37.5

79.1Teleop113.6

27.5Endgame63.9

52Consistency42

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	22
teleop	112	114
endgame	23	31
foul	0	20
total	165	187

Result

Final score

165 – 187

Prediction correct · off by 39.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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