CA District San Diego Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

28.1 – 221.59

8%92%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

24 – 278

Prediction correct · off by 30.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 122.6 ±13.9

9573MarauderTech

Season APEX 31.8Event APEX 17.12Rank 38Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6885The Pilots

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX -6.71Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8006The Phantoms

Season APEX 41.5Event APEX 17.69Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 463.3 ±11.2

9615Redlands Robotics

Season APEX 64.7Event APEX -6.71Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9452LHS Steel Stingers

Season APEX 159.2Event APEX 143.28Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8119TigerBotics

Season APEX 239.4Event APEX 85.02Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9573, 6885, 8006

/ 100 compat

Projected

28.1 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9573, 6885, 8006

Auto

15.5 47%

Teleop

8.0 24%

Endgame

9.3 28%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9615, 9452, 8119

/ 100 compat

Projected

221.6 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9615, 9452, 8119

Auto

17.3 8%

Teleop

137.5 62%

Endgame

66.4 30%

Strengths

· 9452 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.58 · Blue 2.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score28.1pts

Blue projected score221.6pts

Red win probability8%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -193.5
Score range: 6–244
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 302 vs event baseline 119.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

122.6Season APEX463.3

15.5Auto17.3

8Teleop137.5

9.3Endgame66.4

0Consistency66

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	6	16
teleop	12	198
endgame	6	64
foul	0	0
total	24	278

Result

Final score

24 – 278

Prediction correct · off by 30.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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