CA District San Diego Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

32.96 – 143.34

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

10 – 148

Prediction correct · off by 13.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 213.1 ±12.8

4160The RoBucs

Season APEX 52.2Event APEX 39.92Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6695GalvaKnights

Season APEX 133Event APEX -1.13Rank 40Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2839Daedalus

Season APEX 27.9Event APEX -5.83Rank 39Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 321.8 ±13.9

5474Clairemonster

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 74.27Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10625BuzzFusion

Season APEX 58.2Event APEX 20.56Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

4419Team Rewind

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 48.51Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4160, 6695, 2839

/ 100 compat

Projected

33 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4160, 6695, 2839

Auto

11.9 36%

Teleop

12.5 38%

Endgame

8.8 27%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5474, 10625, 4419

/ 100 compat

Projected

143.3 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5474, 10625, 4419

Auto

27.4 20%

Teleop

76.5 56%

Endgame

32.9 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.73 · Blue 2.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score33pts

Blue projected score143.3pts

Red win probability20%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -110.4
Score range: 8–168
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 158 vs event baseline 137.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

213.1Season APEX321.8

11.9Auto27.4

12.5Teleop76.5

8.8Endgame32.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	25
teleop	1	93
endgame	0	30
foul	0	0
total	10	148

Result

Final score

10 – 148

Prediction correct · off by 13.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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