CA District San Diego Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

42.6 – 250.62

7%93%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

18 – 336

Prediction correct · off by 55 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 147.3 ±14.9

1972Searing Engineering

Season APEX 32.3Event APEX 19.06Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 95

3749Team Optix

Season APEX 90.8Event APEX -2.29Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2827LEGION Robotics

Season APEX 24.2Event APEX 25.83Rank 33Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 452.8 ±9.8

10586Unearthed

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 6.75Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3128The Aluminum Narwhals

A+

Season APEX 308.7Event APEX 236.83Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1622Team Spyder

Season APEX 65.3Event APEX 7.04Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1972, 3749, 2827

/ 100 compat

Projected

42.6 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 1972, 3749, 2827

Auto

10.9 28%

Teleop

19.3 49%

Endgame

9.4 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10586, 3128, 1622

/ 100 compat

Projected

250.6 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 10586, 3128, 1622

Auto

55.5 21%

Teleop

151.4 58%

Endgame

53.2 20%

Strengths

· 3128 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.5 · Blue 2.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score42.6pts

Blue projected score250.6pts

Red win probability7%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -208
Score range: 21–273
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 354 vs event baseline 120.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

147.3Season APEX452.8

10.9Auto55.5

19.3Teleop151.4

9.4Endgame53.2

23Consistency45

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	53
teleop	1	192
endgame	0	61
foul	0	30
total	18	336

Result

Final score

18 – 336

Prediction correct · off by 55 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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