CA District San Diego Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

210.44 – 225.26

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

158 – 186

Prediction correct · off by 45.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 356.6 ±11.7

812The Midnight Mechanics

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 47.33Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6995NOMAD

Season APEX 191.6Event APEX 143.77Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3341Option 16

Season APEX 64.5Event APEX 19.34Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 478 ±9.8

2102Team Paradox

Season APEX 233.6Event APEX 110.77Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2658Σ-Motion

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 5.46Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3647Millennium Falcons

Season APEX 141.7Event APEX 109.03Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 812, 6995, 3341

/ 100 compat

Projected

210.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 812, 6995, 3341

Auto

36.0 17%

Teleop

117.5 55%

Endgame

61.8 29%

Strengths

· 6995 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2102, 2658, 3647

/ 100 compat

Projected

225.3 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2102, 2658, 3647

Auto

44.7 20%

Teleop

144.9 66%

Endgame

29.1 13%

Strengths

· 2102 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.43 · Blue 1.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score210.4pts

Blue projected score225.3pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -14.8
Score range: 189–246
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 344 vs event baseline 119.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

356.6Season APEX478

36Auto44.7

117.5Teleop144.9

61.8Endgame29.1

23Consistency3

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	45
teleop	83	108
endgame	43	33
foul	0	0
total	158	186

Result

Final score

158 – 186

Prediction correct · off by 45.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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