CA District San Diego Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

96.32 – 104.88

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

157 – 79

Prediction missed · off by 43.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 243.2 ±11

8891Wild Raccoons

Season APEX 37.6Event APEX 19.81Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4419Team Rewind

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 18.63Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2485Overclocked

Season APEX 106.1Event APEX 57.88Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 268.1 ±12.8

2839Daedalus

Season APEX 27.9Event APEX 20.42Rank 39Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2543TitanBot

Season APEX 76.1Event APEX 36.25Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5474Clairemonster

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 48.21Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8891, 4419, 2485

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.3 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 8891, 4419, 2485

Auto

14.2 13%

Teleop

58.2 55%

Endgame

34.3 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2839, 2543, 5474

/ 100 compat

Projected

104.9 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2839, 2543, 5474

Auto

15.8 16%

Teleop

56.9 59%

Endgame

24.1 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.46 · Blue 1.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score96.3pts

Blue projected score104.9pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -8.6
Score range: 75–126
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 236 vs event baseline 119.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

243.2Season APEX268.1

14.2Auto15.8

58.2Teleop56.9

34.3Endgame24.1

36Consistency5

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	23
teleop	108	42
endgame	32	14
foul	0	0
total	157	79

Result

Final score

157 – 79

Prediction missed · off by 43.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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