CA District San Diego Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

139.85 – 46.93

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

72 – 45

Prediction correct · off by 34.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 334.1 ±11.7

4738Patribots

Season APEX 142.7Event APEX 51.8Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2984Vikings Robotics

Season APEX 127.9Event APEX 68.51Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3965Sultan Robotics Team 3965

Season APEX 63.5Event APEX 19.54Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 108.6 ±16.9

10392Brawley Robocats

Season APEX 32.9Event APEX 24.86Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

3704RoboSapiens

Season APEX 23.5Event APEX -13.4Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 79

4160The RoBucs

Season APEX 52.2Event APEX 35.47Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4738, 2984, 3965

/ 100 compat

Projected

139.9 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4738, 2984, 3965

Auto

9.8 8%

Teleop

61.5 50%

Endgame

52.7 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10392, 3704, 4160

/ 100 compat

Projected

46.9 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 10392, 3704, 4160

Auto

6.4 21%

Teleop

11.1 37%

Endgame

12.6 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.05 · Blue 0.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score139.9pts

Blue projected score46.9pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 92.9
Score range: 25–162
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 117 vs event baseline 121.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

334.1Season APEX108.6

9.8Auto6.4

61.5Teleop11.1

52.7Endgame12.6

30Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	8
teleop	37	12
endgame	17	5
foul	0	20
total	72	45

Result

Final score

72 – 45

Prediction correct · off by 34.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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