CA District San Diego Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

138.89 – 215.59

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

136 – 313

Prediction correct · off by 50.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 380.7 ±11.2

4419Team Rewind

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 21.27Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8119TigerBotics

Season APEX 239.4Event APEX 75.25Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6515Unimatics

Season APEX 41.8Event APEX 42.37Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 365.6 ±11.7

6995NOMAD

Season APEX 191.6Event APEX 125.74Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1972Searing Engineering

Season APEX 32.3Event APEX -6.18Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 95

3647Millennium Falcons

Season APEX 141.7Event APEX 96.03Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4419, 8119, 6515

/ 100 compat

Projected

138.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4419, 8119, 6515

Auto

21.0 14%

Teleop

103.0 66%

Endgame

31.0 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6995, 1972, 3647

/ 100 compat

Projected

215.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 6995, 1972, 3647

Auto

43.5 23%

Teleop

92.7 48%

Endgame

55.4 29%

Strengths

· 6995 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.09 · Blue 1.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score138.9pts

Blue projected score215.6pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -76.7
Score range: 118–237
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 449 vs event baseline 115.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

380.7Season APEX365.6

21Auto43.5

103Teleop92.7

31Endgame55.4

32Consistency162

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	52
teleop	61	183
endgame	59	78
foul	0	0
total	136	313

Result

Final score

136 – 313

Prediction correct · off by 50.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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