CA District San Diego Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

53.48 – 119.1

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

197 – 183

Prediction missed · off by 103.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 323.4 ±13.1

8870RedCards

Season APEX 31.4Event APEX -10.06Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

5474Clairemonster

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 12.48Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2984Vikings Robotics

Season APEX 127.9Event APEX 51.06Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 312.7 ±11.7

8006The Phantoms

Season APEX 41.5Event APEX 7.04Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2102Team Paradox

Season APEX 233.6Event APEX 110.66Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8891Wild Raccoons

Season APEX 37.6Event APEX 1.4Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8870, 5474, 2984

/ 100 compat

Projected

53.5 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 8870, 5474, 2984

Auto

15.7 35%

Teleop

0.0 0%

Endgame

28.9 65%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8006, 2102, 8891

/ 100 compat

Projected

119.1 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 8006, 2102, 8891

Auto

34.0 30%

Teleop

72.1 63%

Endgame

7.7 7%

Strengths

· 2102 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.09 · Blue 1.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score53.5pts

Blue projected score119.1pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -65.6
Score range: 33–139
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 380 vs event baseline 112.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

323.4Season APEX312.7

15.7Auto34

0Teleop72.1

28.9Endgame7.7

121Consistency73

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	21
teleop	64	118
endgame	63	39
foul	50	5
total	197	183

Result

Final score

197 – 183

Prediction missed · off by 103.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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