CA District San Diego Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

102.55 – 14.27

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

60 – 33

Prediction correct · off by 30.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 237.6 ±12.8

5514MavBots

Season APEX 71.4Event APEX 61.09Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3965Sultan Robotics Team 3965

Season APEX 63.5Event APEX 18.47Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2658Σ-Motion

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 22.99Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 157.1 ±12.2

1622Team Spyder

Season APEX 65.3Event APEX 13.02Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4984Bullseye

Season APEX 42.5Event APEX 5.92Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6885The Pilots

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX -4.67Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5514, 3965, 2658

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5514, 3965, 2658

Auto

8.2 9%

Teleop

68.4 71%

Endgame

19.1 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1622, 4984, 6885

/ 100 compat

Projected

14.3 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1622, 4984, 6885

Auto

10.8 46%

Teleop

14.6 63%

Endgame

-2.1 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.93 · Blue 0.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score102.6pts

Blue projected score14.3pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 88.3
Score range: -7–124
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 93 vs event baseline 115.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

237.6Season APEX157.1

8.2Auto10.8

68.4Teleop14.6

19.1Endgame-2.1

12Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	12
teleop	29	18
endgame	20	3
foul	0	0
total	60	33

Result

Final score

60 – 33

Prediction correct · off by 30.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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