CA District San Diego Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

210.09 – 317.08

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

271 – 296

Prediction correct · off by 41 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 524.3 ±10.7

2102Team Paradox

Season APEX 233.6Event APEX 119.02Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4919Team Ronin

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 8.65Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8119TigerBotics

Season APEX 239.4Event APEX 82.42Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 414 ±12.4

3128The Aluminum Narwhals

A+

Season APEX 308.7Event APEX 272.09Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3965Sultan Robotics Team 3965

Season APEX 63.5Event APEX 21.17Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6515Unimatics

Season APEX 41.8Event APEX 23.82Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2102, 4919, 8119

/ 100 compat

Projected

210.1 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2102, 4919, 8119

Auto

30.3 14%

Teleop

132.9 63%

Endgame

48.9 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3128, 3965, 6515

/ 100 compat

Projected

317.1 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 3128, 3965, 6515

Auto

57.9 19%

Teleop

173.0 56%

Endgame

79.5 26%

Strengths

· 3128 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.96 · Blue 2.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score210.1pts

Blue projected score317.1pts

Red win probability21%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -107
Score range: 185–342
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 567 vs event baseline 137.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

524.3Season APEX414

30.3Auto57.9

132.9Teleop173

48.9Endgame79.5

11Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	56
teleop	181	186
endgame	43	54
foul	0	0
total	271	296

Result

Final score

271 – 296

Prediction correct · off by 41 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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