CA District San Diego Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

44.16 – 56.88

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

38 – 103

Prediction correct · off by 26.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 225.7 ±12.8

9573MarauderTech

Season APEX 31.8Event APEX 18.58Rank 38Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6695GalvaKnights

Season APEX 133Event APEX 9.12Rank 40Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9730Metal Maniacs

Season APEX 60.9Event APEX 16.46Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 224.2 ±13.9

10392Brawley Robocats

Season APEX 32.9Event APEX 11.49Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

812The Midnight Mechanics

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 42.44Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3749Team Optix

Season APEX 90.8Event APEX 2.95Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9573, 6695, 9730

/ 100 compat

Projected

44.2 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9573, 6695, 9730

Auto

13.1 29%

Teleop

17.2 37%

Endgame

15.6 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10392, 812, 3749

/ 100 compat

Projected

56.9 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 10392, 812, 3749

Auto

0.9 2%

Teleop

31.4 56%

Endgame

23.9 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.29 · Blue 1.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score44.2pts

Blue projected score56.9pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -12.7
Score range: 23–78
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 141 vs event baseline 116.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

225.7Season APEX224.2

13.1Auto0.9

17.2Teleop31.4

15.6Endgame23.9

0Consistency38

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	25
teleop	14	48
endgame	9	30
foul	0	0
total	38	103

Result

Final score

38 – 103

Prediction correct · off by 26.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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