CA District San Diego Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

61.63 – 90.34

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

154 – 152

Prediction missed · off by 77 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 177.3 ±13.9

4160The RoBucs

Season APEX 52.2Event APEX 26.42Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3341Option 16

Season APEX 64.5Event APEX 17.92Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5025Pacific Steel

Season APEX 60.6Event APEX 17.29Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 276.7 ±11.7

2485Overclocked

Season APEX 106.1Event APEX 37.3Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4738Patribots

Season APEX 142.7Event APEX 51.78Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2839Daedalus

Season APEX 27.9Event APEX 1.26Rank 39Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4160, 3341, 5025

/ 100 compat

Projected

61.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4160, 3341, 5025

Auto

21.8 32%

Teleop

25.7 37%

Endgame

21.1 31%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2485, 4738, 2839

/ 100 compat

Projected

90.3 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2485, 4738, 2839

Auto

12.9 14%

Teleop

51.1 54%

Endgame

31.3 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.25 · Blue 1.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score61.6pts

Blue projected score90.3pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -28.7
Score range: 41–111
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 306 vs event baseline 115.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

177.3Season APEX276.7

21.8Auto12.9

25.7Teleop51.1

21.1Endgame31.3

36Consistency19

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	18
teleop	96	95
endgame	24	39
foul	0	0
total	154	152

Result

Final score

154 – 152

Prediction missed · off by 77 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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