CA District San Diego Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

23.08 – 195.84

10%90%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

127 – 150

Prediction correct · off by 74.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 234.1 ±12.8

3341Option 16

Season APEX 64.5Event APEX -6.89Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2485Overclocked

Season APEX 106.1Event APEX 10.62Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3965Sultan Robotics Team 3965

Season APEX 63.5Event APEX 19.35Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 413.9 ±11.2

8119TigerBotics

Season APEX 239.4Event APEX 100.08Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4738Patribots

Season APEX 142.7Event APEX 52.69Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9573MarauderTech

Season APEX 31.8Event APEX 43.07Rank 38Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3341, 2485, 3965

/ 100 compat

Projected

23.1 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3341, 2485, 3965

Auto

15.4 55%

Teleop

5.5 20%

Endgame

7.1 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8119, 4738, 9573

/ 100 compat

Projected

195.8 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 8119, 4738, 9573

Auto

28.6 15%

Teleop

122.6 63%

Endgame

43.6 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.71 · Blue 2.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score23.1pts

Blue projected score195.8pts

Red win probability10%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -172.8
Score range: 1–218
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 277 vs event baseline 120.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

234.1Season APEX413.9

15.4Auto28.6

5.5Teleop122.6

7.1Endgame43.6

62Consistency12

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	12
teleop	61	75
endgame	48	63
foul	0	0
total	127	150

Result

Final score

127 – 150

Prediction correct · off by 74.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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