CA District San Diego Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

44.42 – 217.87

10%90%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

101 – 346

Prediction correct · off by 92.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 168.1 ±15.1

5025Pacific Steel

Season APEX 60.6Event APEX 4.45Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2543TitanBot

Season APEX 76.1Event APEX 32.87Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8870RedCards

Season APEX 31.4Event APEX 7.1Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 461.4 ±11.2

3128The Aluminum Narwhals

A+

Season APEX 308.7Event APEX 189.28Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4160The RoBucs

Season APEX 52.2Event APEX 3.77Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

812The Midnight Mechanics

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 24.82Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5025, 2543, 8870

/ 100 compat

Projected

44.4 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5025, 2543, 8870

Auto

12.7 22%

Teleop

20.4 35%

Endgame

24.6 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3128, 4160, 812

/ 100 compat

Projected

217.9 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 3128, 4160, 812

Auto

46.0 22%

Teleop

145.4 68%

Endgame

22.3 10%

Strengths

· 3128 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.6 · Blue 2.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score44.4pts

Blue projected score217.9pts

Red win probability10%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -173.4
Score range: 23–239
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 447 vs event baseline 118.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

168.1Season APEX461.4

12.7Auto46

20.4Teleop145.4

24.6Endgame22.3

59Consistency146

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	61
teleop	39	179
endgame	39	106
foul	0	0
total	101	346

Result

Final score

101 – 346

Prediction correct · off by 92.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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