CA District San Diego Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

113.99 – 183.64

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

104 – 146

Prediction correct · off by 23.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 297.9 ±14.5

11459St. Augustine Robotics

Season APEX 32Event APEX 9.22Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

1972Searing Engineering

Season APEX 32.3Event APEX -0.38Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 95

2102Team Paradox

Season APEX 233.6Event APEX 105.15Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 289.8 ±11.7

2658Σ-Motion

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 37.06Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2839Daedalus

Season APEX 27.9Event APEX 18.85Rank 39Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9452LHS Steel Stingers

Season APEX 159.2Event APEX 127.73Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11459, 1972, 2102

/ 100 compat

Projected

114 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 11459, 1972, 2102

Auto

19.3 18%

Teleop

60.1 57%

Endgame

25.3 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2658, 2839, 9452

/ 100 compat

Projected

183.6 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2658, 2839, 9452

Auto

13.5 8%

Teleop

119.2 68%

Endgame

43.3 25%

Strengths

· 9452 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.99 · Blue 1.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score114pts

Blue projected score183.6pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -69.6
Score range: 93–205
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 250 vs event baseline 117.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

297.9Season APEX289.8

19.3Auto13.5

60.1Teleop119.2

25.3Endgame43.3

89Consistency22

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	11
teleop	27	88
endgame	1	47
foul	40	0
total	104	146

Result

Final score

104 – 146

Prediction correct · off by 23.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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