CA District San Diego Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

48.69 – 153.17

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

35 – 171

Prediction correct · off by 15.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 288.4 ±11.7

6885The Pilots

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 21.77Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2485Overclocked

Season APEX 106.1Event APEX 1.53Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6695GalvaKnights

Season APEX 133Event APEX 25.39Rank 40Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 207.7 ±14.9

6515Unimatics

Season APEX 41.8Event APEX 54.97Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3647Millennium Falcons

Season APEX 141.7Event APEX 74.37Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2827LEGION Robotics

Season APEX 24.2Event APEX 23.83Rank 33Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6885, 2485, 6695

/ 100 compat

Projected

48.7 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 6885, 2485, 6695

Auto

11.2 21%

Teleop

37.2 71%

Endgame

4.1 8%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6515, 3647, 2827

/ 100 compat

Projected

153.2 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 6515, 3647, 2827

Auto

9.8 6%

Teleop

96.1 61%

Endgame

52.4 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.82 · Blue 2.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score48.7pts

Blue projected score153.2pts

Red win probability21%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -104.5
Score range: 28–174
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 206 vs event baseline 118.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

288.4Season APEX207.7

11.2Auto9.8

37.2Teleop96.1

4.1Endgame52.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	40
teleop	9	88
endgame	13	43
foul	0	0
total	35	171

Result

Final score

35 – 171

Prediction correct · off by 15.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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