CA District San Diego Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

143.43 – 49.87

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

152 – 13

Prediction correct · off by 22.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 278.4 ±11.7

3647Millennium Falcons

Season APEX 141.7Event APEX 106.13Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1622Team Spyder

Season APEX 65.3Event APEX 15.73Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5514MavBots

Season APEX 71.4Event APEX 21.57Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 207.2 ±11

3749Team Optix

Season APEX 90.8Event APEX 0.36Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10586Unearthed

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 31.26Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8891Wild Raccoons

Season APEX 37.6Event APEX 18.25Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3647, 1622, 5514

/ 100 compat

Projected

143.4 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 3647, 1622, 5514

Auto

29.2 21%

Teleop

80.0 57%

Endgame

31.3 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3749, 10586, 8891

/ 100 compat

Projected

49.9 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 3749, 10586, 8891

Auto

17.2 35%

Teleop

19.0 39%

Endgame

12.8 26%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.05 · Blue 0.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score143.4pts

Blue projected score49.9pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 93.6
Score range: 25–168
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 165 vs event baseline 137.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

278.4Season APEX207.2

29.2Auto17.2

80Teleop19

31.3Endgame12.8

16Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	8
teleop	77	3
endgame	48	2
foul	0	0
total	152	13

Result

Final score

152 – 13

Prediction correct · off by 22.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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