CA District San Diego Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

116.56 – 183.02

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

222 – 69

Prediction missed · off by 109.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 395.2 ±11.7

4738Patribots

Season APEX 142.7Event APEX 23.49Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9730Metal Maniacs

Season APEX 60.9Event APEX 18.95Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6995NOMAD

Season APEX 191.6Event APEX 74.12Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 237.5 ±13.9

812The Midnight Mechanics

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 47.34Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10586Unearthed

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 21.12Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10625BuzzFusion

Season APEX 58.2Event APEX 114.56Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4738, 9730, 6995

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.6 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4738, 9730, 6995

Auto

14.5 13%

Teleop

58.6 52%

Endgame

38.7 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 812, 10586, 10625

/ 100 compat

Projected

183 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 812, 10586, 10625

Auto

29.0 16%

Teleop

106.4 60%

Endgame

43.2 24%

Strengths

· 10625 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.16 · Blue 1.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score116.6pts

Blue projected score183pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -66.5
Score range: 96–204
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 291 vs event baseline 118.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

395.2Season APEX237.5

14.5Auto29

58.6Teleop106.4

38.7Endgame43.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	11
teleop	121	26
endgame	40	27
foul	15	5
total	222	69

Result

Final score

222 – 69

Prediction missed · off by 109.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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