Qualification · Qualification 16
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
139.91 – 143.54
49%51%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
237 – 129
Prediction missed · off by 55.8 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 262.6 ±14.9
Season APEX 32Event APEX -1.94Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77
Season APEX 71.4Event APEX 55.96Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 159.2Event APEX 85.89Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 364.5 ±12.7
Season APEX 233.6Event APEX 113.49Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 13.89Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 31.4Event APEX 16.16Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 11459, 5514, 9452
74
/ 100 compatProjected
139.9 pts
~1.4 RP (district)
Teams: 11459, 5514, 9452
Auto
17.5 13%
Teleop
70.1 51%
Endgame
50.8 37%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
RP bonus probability
Energized: 43%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 2102, 4419, 8870
77
/ 100 compatProjected
143.5 pts
~1.5 RP (district)
Teams: 2102, 4419, 8870
Auto
23.1 16%
Teleop
82.7 57%
Endgame
38.1 26%
Strengths
- · 2102 anchors offense
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 43%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.45 · Blue 1.53
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score139.9pts
Blue projected score143.5pts
Red win probability49%
Event bonus sample190alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 43%, blue 45%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -3.6
- Score range
- 119–165
- Upset likelihood
- 49%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
262.6Season APEX364.5
17.5Auto23.1
70.1Teleop82.7
50.8Endgame38.1
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 10 | 25 |
| teleop | 120 | 79 |
| endgame | 62 | 25 |
| foul | 45 | 0 |
| total | 237 | 129 |
Result
Final score
237 – 129
Prediction missed · off by 55.8 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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