CA District San Diego Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

138.77 – 82.71

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

72 – 44

Prediction correct · off by 52.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 150.5 ±15.8

8006The Phantoms

Season APEX 41.5Event APEX 42.82Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10392Brawley Robocats

Season APEX 32.9Event APEX 32.73Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

2543TitanBot

Season APEX 76.1Event APEX 63.22Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 257.9 ±12.2

4984Bullseye

Season APEX 42.5Event APEX 27.3Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5474Clairemonster

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 23.87Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4919Team Ronin

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 31.54Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8006, 10392, 2543

/ 100 compat

Projected

138.8 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 8006, 10392, 2543

Auto

10.3 8%

Teleop

86.3 63%

Endgame

39.6 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4984, 5474, 4919

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.7 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4984, 5474, 4919

Auto

13.4 16%

Teleop

51.6 62%

Endgame

18.5 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.74 · Blue 1.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score138.8pts

Blue projected score82.7pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 56.1
Score range: 61–161
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 116 vs event baseline 122.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

150.5Season APEX257.9

10.3Auto13.4

86.3Teleop51.6

39.6Endgame18.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	10
teleop	44	28
endgame	9	6
foul	0	0
total	72	44

Result

Final score

72 – 44

Prediction correct · off by 52.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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