CA District San Diego Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

191.88 – 28.32

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

203 – 50

Prediction correct · off by 16.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 336.1 ±11.7

6995NOMAD

Season APEX 191.6Event APEX 62.16Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2658Σ-Motion

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 51.18Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6515Unimatics

Season APEX 41.8Event APEX 78.54Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 141.7 ±14.9

4160The RoBucs

Season APEX 52.2Event APEX -3.19Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1622Team Spyder

Season APEX 65.3Event APEX 15.81Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2827LEGION Robotics

Season APEX 24.2Event APEX 15.7Rank 33Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6995, 2658, 6515

/ 100 compat

Projected

191.9 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 6995, 2658, 6515

Auto

46.4 24%

Teleop

111.8 59%

Endgame

31.8 17%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4160, 1622, 2827

/ 100 compat

Projected

28.3 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4160, 1622, 2827

Auto

13.1 48%

Teleop

0.3 1%

Endgame

14.1 51%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.22 · Blue 0.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score191.9pts

Blue projected score28.3pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 163.6
Score range: 7–213
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 253 vs event baseline 116.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

336.1Season APEX141.7

46.4Auto13.1

111.8Teleop0.3

31.8Endgame14.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	11
teleop	130	28
endgame	43	11
foul	0	0
total	203	50

Result

Final score

203 – 50

Prediction correct · off by 16.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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