CA District San Diego Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

99.23 – 82.61

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

59 – 73

Prediction missed · off by 24.9 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 163.6 ±12.8

1972Searing Engineering

Season APEX 32.3Event APEX -0.08Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 95

9573MarauderTech

Season APEX 31.8Event APEX 56.85Rank 38Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4419Team Rewind

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 42.46Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 223.4 ±14.1

6885The Pilots

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 49.72Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8870RedCards

Season APEX 31.4Event APEX 18.77Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

4738Patribots

Season APEX 142.7Event APEX 14.12Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1972, 9573, 4419

/ 100 compat

Projected

99.2 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 1972, 9573, 4419

Auto

29.0 30%

Teleop

41.9 43%

Endgame

26.9 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6885, 8870, 4738

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6885, 8870, 4738

Auto

19.4 24%

Teleop

43.9 54%

Endgame

18.3 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.5 · Blue 1.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score99.2pts

Blue projected score82.6pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 16.6
Score range: 61–121
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 132 vs event baseline 120.8.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

163.6Season APEX223.4

29Auto19.4

41.9Teleop43.9

26.9Endgame18.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	7
teleop	20	37
endgame	23	29
foul	0	0
total	59	73

Result

Final score

59 – 73

Prediction missed · off by 24.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.