Qualification · Qualification 11
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
42.55 – 96.01
34%66%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
202 – 59
Prediction missed · off by 98.2 points
Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 258.8 ±14.1
Season APEX 76.1Event APEX 17.43Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 159.2Event APEX 36.29Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 23.5Event APEX -11.17Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 79
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 289.5 ±12.8
Season APEX 64.5Event APEX 36.29Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 60.9Event APEX 17.43Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 42.29Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 2543, 9452, 3704
33
/ 100 compatProjected
42.6 pts
~1.1 RP (district)
Teams: 2543, 9452, 3704
Auto
10.0 23%
Teleop
10.8 25%
Endgame
22.3 52%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 34%
Supercharged: 4%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 3341, 9730, 5474
61
/ 100 compatProjected
96 pts
~1.8 RP (district)
Teams: 3341, 9730, 5474
Auto
16.3 17%
Teleop
49.4 51%
Endgame
30.3 32%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 34%
Supercharged: 4%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.08 · Blue 1.81
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score42.6pts
Blue projected score96pts
Red win probability34%
Event bonus sample190alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 34%, blue 43%
Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -53.5
- Score range
- 21–118
- Upset likelihood
- 34%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
258.8Season APEX289.5
10Auto16.3
10.8Teleop49.4
22.3Endgame30.3
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 1 | 13 |
| teleop | 122 | 40 |
| endgame | 79 | 6 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 202 | 59 |
Result
Final score
202 – 59
Prediction missed · off by 98.2 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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