CA District San Diego Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

110.51 – 23.93

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

155 – 112

Prediction correct · off by 66.3 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 331.2 ±14.5

9615Redlands Robotics

Season APEX 64.7Event APEX 5.71Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2102Team Paradox

Season APEX 233.6Event APEX 82.23Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10392Brawley Robocats

Season APEX 32.9Event APEX 22.57Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 268.3 ±11.7

2485Overclocked

Season APEX 106.1Event APEX 5.71Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3749Team Optix

Season APEX 90.8Event APEX -12.56Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5514MavBots

Season APEX 71.4Event APEX 30.78Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9615, 2102, 10392

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.5 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9615, 2102, 10392

Auto

19.1 18%

Teleop

65.7 60%

Endgame

24.3 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2485, 3749, 5514

/ 100 compat

Projected

23.9 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2485, 3749, 5514

Auto

8.5 35%

Teleop

8.4 34%

Endgame

7.6 31%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.96 · Blue 1.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score110.5pts

Blue projected score23.9pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 86.6
Score range: 3–132
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 267 vs event baseline 118.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

331.2Season APEX268.3

19.1Auto8.5

65.7Teleop8.4

24.3Endgame7.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	14
teleop	110	77
endgame	11	21
foul	5	0
total	155	112

Result

Final score

155 – 112

Prediction correct · off by 66.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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