CA District San Diego Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

65.87 – 72.11

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

22 – 79

Prediction correct · off by 25.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 134.1 ±15.8

8006The Phantoms

Season APEX 41.5Event APEX 3.25Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5025Pacific Steel

Season APEX 60.6Event APEX 45.19Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11459St. Augustine Robotics

Season APEX 32Event APEX 17.43Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 199.8 ±16.7

10392Brawley Robocats

Season APEX 32.9Event APEX 16.47Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

2827LEGION Robotics

Season APEX 24.2Event APEX 6.94Rank 33Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

4738Patribots

Season APEX 142.7Event APEX 48.7Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8006, 5025, 11459

/ 100 compat

Projected

65.9 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 8006, 5025, 11459

Auto

18.0 31%

Teleop

23.2 40%

Endgame

16.6 29%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10392, 2827, 4738

/ 100 compat

Projected

72.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 10392, 2827, 4738

Auto

14.5 20%

Teleop

42.8 60%

Endgame

14.2 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.37 · Blue 1.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score65.9pts

Blue projected score72.1pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -6.2
Score range: 41–97
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 101 vs event baseline 137.5.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

134.1Season APEX199.8

18Auto14.5

23.2Teleop42.8

16.6Endgame14.2

7Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	0
teleop	0	44
endgame	6	30
foul	0	5
total	22	79

Result

Final score

22 – 79

Prediction correct · off by 25.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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