CA District San Diego Event presented by Qualcomm

Final · Finals 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

409.07 – 248.91

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

374 – 237

Prediction correct · off by 23.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 645 ±9.3

2658Σ-Motion

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 15.4Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3128The Aluminum Narwhals

A+

Season APEX 308.7Event APEX 273.4Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2102Team Paradox

Season APEX 233.6Event APEX 120.27Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 483.8 ±10.4

6695GalvaKnights

Season APEX 133Event APEX -0.66Rank 40Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9452LHS Steel Stingers

Season APEX 159.2Event APEX 128.57Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6995NOMAD

Season APEX 191.6Event APEX 121Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2658, 3128, 2102

/ 100 compat

Projected

409.1 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 2658, 3128, 2102

Auto

72.3 18%

Teleop

234.4 59%

Endgame

92.9 23%

Strengths

· 3128 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6695, 9452, 6995

/ 100 compat

Projected

248.9 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6695, 9452, 6995

Auto

46.7 20%

Teleop

123.5 52%

Endgame

67.5 28%

Strengths

· 9452 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.33 · Blue 0.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score409.1pts

Blue projected score248.9pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 160.2
Score range: 225–433
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 611 vs event baseline 135.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

645Season APEX483.8

72.3Auto46.7

234.4Teleop123.5

92.9Endgame67.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	78	33
teleop	177	56
endgame	104	83
foul	15	65
total	374	237

Result

Final score

374 – 237

Prediction correct · off by 23.5 pts

Match videos

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