CA District San Diego Event presented by Qualcomm

Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

413.21 – 263.43

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

376 – 135

Prediction correct · off by 82.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 645 ±9.3

2658Σ-Motion

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 16.11Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3128The Aluminum Narwhals

A+

Season APEX 308.7Event APEX 275.12Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2102Team Paradox

Season APEX 233.6Event APEX 121.98Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 483.8 ±10.4

6695GalvaKnights

Season APEX 133Event APEX 4.23Rank 40Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9452LHS Steel Stingers

Season APEX 159.2Event APEX 133.52Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6995NOMAD

Season APEX 191.6Event APEX 125.68Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2658, 3128, 2102

/ 100 compat

Projected

413.2 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 2658, 3128, 2102

Auto

75.2 19%

Teleop

243.4 60%

Endgame

84.5 21%

Strengths

· 3128 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6695, 9452, 6995

/ 100 compat

Projected

263.4 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6695, 9452, 6995

Auto

43.4 17%

Teleop

136.4 54%

Endgame

72.9 29%

Strengths

· 9452 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.3 · Blue 0.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score413.2pts

Blue projected score263.4pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 149.8
Score range: 239–437
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 511 vs event baseline 134.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

645Season APEX483.8

75.2Auto43.4

243.4Teleop136.4

84.5Endgame72.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	72
teleop	166	21
endgame	153	27
foul	5	15
total	376	135

Result

Final score

376 – 135

Prediction correct · off by 82.8 pts

Match videos

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