Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

154.19 – 110.98

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

183 – 133

Prediction correct · off by 25.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 321.1 ±11

1160Titanium Robotics

Season APEX 141.6Event APEX 90.21Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3952Troy Robotics

Season APEX 79Event APEX 33.79Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1197TorBots

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 30.19Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 215.6 ±11.6

4999Momentum

Season APEX 97.4Event APEX 40.97Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4141Monarch Robotics

Season APEX 70.1Event APEX 45.6Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7447Rōnin Robotics

Season APEX 48.1Event APEX 24.41Rank 19Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1160, 3952, 1197

/ 100 compat

Projected

154.2 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 1160, 3952, 1197

Auto

19.5 13%

Teleop

78.1 52%

Endgame

53.5 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4999, 4141, 7447

/ 100 compat

Projected

111 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4999, 4141, 7447

Auto

19.4 19%

Teleop

47.7 46%

Endgame

35.8 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.69 · Blue 1.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score154.2pts

Blue projected score111pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 43.2
Score range: 81–184
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 316 vs event baseline 168.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

321.1Season APEX215.6

19.5Auto19.4

78.1Teleop47.7

53.5Endgame35.8

33Consistency19

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	31
teleop	90	63
endgame	39	39
foul	10	0
total	183	133

Result

Final score

183 – 133

Prediction correct · off by 25.4 pts

Match videos

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