Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

76.12 – 99.32

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

54 – 178

Prediction correct · off by 50.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 198.3 ±12.2

5285Sea Kings Robotics

Season APEX 79.3Event APEX 29.81Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6904TeraWatts

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX 12.23Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4079Quantum Leap

Season APEX 70.3Event APEX 34.08Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 215.6 ±11.6

4999Momentum

Season APEX 97.4Event APEX 37.44Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4141Monarch Robotics

Season APEX 70.1Event APEX 42.07Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7447Rōnin Robotics

Season APEX 48.1Event APEX 19.81Rank 19Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5285, 6904, 4079

/ 100 compat

Projected

76.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5285, 6904, 4079

Auto

19.7 27%

Teleop

37.8 51%

Endgame

15.9 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4999, 4141, 7447

/ 100 compat

Projected

99.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4999, 4141, 7447

Auto

17.7 19%

Teleop

41.8 44%

Endgame

35.3 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.39 · Blue 1.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score76.1pts

Blue projected score99.3pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -23.2
Score range: 46–129
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 232 vs event baseline 164.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

198.3Season APEX215.6

19.7Auto17.7

37.8Teleop41.8

15.9Endgame35.3

20Consistency11

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	27
teleop	25	80
endgame	12	41
foul	0	30
total	54	178

Result

Final score

54 – 178

Prediction correct · off by 50.4 pts

Match videos

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